The numbers matter. So do the assumptions, tradeoffs and people required to deliver them.
Every annual planning cycle eventually produces a spreadsheet. It contains revenue targets, growth rates, channel forecasts and investment requests. The numbers may be detailed. The formulas may be correct. But that does not automatically make it a strategy. A forecast describes where the business could land. An operating plan explains how the business intends to get there and what must be true along the way. Here are some thoughts to help you before you lock it in.
Start with the year you actually had
Before setting 2027 targets, separate the 2026 story into its real drivers and also remind yourself why 2026 was built the way it was built. Which growth came from sustainable demand? Which came from additional discounting, media investment, distribution or a temporary event? Where did margin improve or erode? Which operational constraints affected the outcome? The goal is not to defend the year. It is to understand it.
Build the forecast from its real drivers
Build assumptions for traffic, conversion rate and average order value independently. Then examine how channel mix, new versus returning customers and promotional intensity affect each one. A single topline growth percentage can hide assumptions that contradict one another.
Subscription revenue should be modeled separately rather than absorbed into a general returning-customer assumption. Start with the active subscriber base, then account for new subscribers, churn, skips, pauses, failed payments, reactivations, billing frequency and any subscription discount. Growth in subscribers does not automatically translate into proportional revenue growth.
Put the commercial calendar into the plan
Place the promotional calendar and product launches into the plan before finalizing monthly revenue. Identify which launches create incremental demand, which promotions shift demand between periods and which events require inventory, content or media commitments months in advance.
Plan product discontinuations with the same discipline. Account for the timing of the revenue decline, remaining inventory, markdowns and the potential migration of customers to replacement products. If the discontinued item is embedded within a subscription program, product routine, bundle or high-traffic customer journey, the impact may extend well beyond the product’s individual sales.
Account for the full cost of growth
A demand plan cannot be separated from inventory, fulfillment, customer service, site capacity, technology or the partners required to operate the business. Include expected increases in application fees, usage-based technology costs, agency retainers, payment processing, fulfillment, shipping and other partner expenses. Review contract renewal dates and built-in annual increases before budgets are finalized.
Growth that the organization cannot deliver—or can deliver only at an unacceptable cost—is not healthy growth.
Make every assumption visible
Every forecast depends on assumptions. Document them. What media efficiency is required? What conversion improvement is expected? What subscription retention is assumed? Which products are launching or being discontinued? How much of the forecast depends on a new channel or technology initiative? What cost increases have been assumed across applications, agencies and operating partners?
Visible assumptions can be challenged before they become missed targets.
Plan for more than one outcome
A single forecast creates false certainty. Develop conservative, base and stretch scenarios with clear triggers. Define what investment or capacity is required for the stretch case and what the business will do if early performance points toward the conservative case.
Bring the people responsible for execution into the process
Finance and executive leadership should not build the plan in isolation. Channel owners, operators, marketers, merchandisers and customer-facing teams often know which assumptions are realistic and where execution may break. Listening does not mean every opinion becomes strategy. It means strategy is informed by reality.
Turn the forecast into a working operating plan
Assign owners, decision dates and leading indicators. Review assumptions throughout the year, not only results. The plan should help teams make decisions as conditions change; it should not become a static document used only to explain variance.
The strongest annual plans connect commercial ambition with operational reality. They make growth drivers explicit, clarify tradeoffs and align the organization around how the business intends to win. They make growth drivers visible, clarify tradeoffs and give teams a shared understanding of how the business intends to win.
The spreadsheet matters. But the real strategy lives in the decisions, alignment and execution behind it.
A checklist before you lock your 2027 plan
- Agree on source of truth with leadership, finance and your team. NO DATA will ever align from platform to platform, each platform has it’s goals, it’s look back window in how it produces insights at a very tactical level, but you must align on your sources for this exercise so it’s consistent YOY. (TIP: ALWAYS record the source of your data and the link to if you can.)
- Have you separated sustainable growth from temporary 2026 drivers?
- Are traffic, conversion rate and average order value modeled independently?
- Are new and returning customers accounted for separately?
- Is subscription revenue based on subscriber behavior—not simply prior-year growth?
- Are promotions, launches and discontinuations reflected by month?
- Have you accounted for inventory, fulfillment and customer-service capacity?
- Are application, agency, payment-processing, shipping and partner cost increases included?
- Are the forecast’s most important assumptions documented?
- Have you developed conservative, base and stretch scenarios?
- Does each major initiative have an owner, decision date and leading indicator?
- Have the people responsible for execution challenged the plan?
- Do you know which assumptions would trigger a change in investment or priorities?
- Have major initiatives been sequenced across the year with their dependencies identified?
- Is each initiative tied to the people, budget, technology and partner support required?
- Will those resources be available when the work needs to begin?
- Does the roadmap reflect the team’s actual capacity?
- If resources are not approved, is it clear which goals or timelines must change?
NOTES: Fall planning into 2027 is always an “estimate”. Have a firm first quarter ready, but fight for a regroup in December once the year is done and when the Marketing team is also firm on their final plans for the year. A lot of times brands don’t know their focus during forecast/budget planning times, but the exercise still needs to be done. I guess in my experience, be as upfront with your manager of what is firm, what is unknown and what has risks. It gives them a heads-up and you time to also edit your recommendation for the year.
Fujo helps consumer brands translate growth ambitions into practical ecommerce and DTC operating plans spanning forecasting, channel strategy, customer experience, lifecycle marketing and execution. If your team is reviewing its 2027 plan, we would be happy to discuss the assumptions, opportunities and risks that deserve a closer look.
Sandy Johnson sandy@fujoconsulting.com